The Bitcoin-Fueled Neverending Mobeus Strip of Monetary Hell. Exhibit A: Howard Lutnick of Cantor Fitzgerald brags about how efficiently Bitcoin finances government debt so America can keep spending.
What bothers me is the degree of certainty these bitcoin experts have when talking about something that has never been tested.
It's not like there is a track record for them to point to, there is only speculation. And when we speculate over gold and silver, we are never 100% sure,,, but some how, they are absolutely positive when it comes to bitcoin.
I've made a 30% return on my investments with gold and silver since last year, to me that is GREAT!!!
One day, I believe every crypto wallet will just suddenly lock up,,, and the patch they release to open/fix it, will crumble the blockchain code, and the people they try to hold accountable, will have suddenly never existed.
Rafi: "Tether is backed by US Treasurys and bitcoin enables the US to spread out its inflation on other unsuspecting rubes."
Rafi, I believe you previously said, and I believe you're saying above (and which I also believe to be true) that people who would otherwise have bought silver and gold in order to hedge against hyperinflation instead bought Bitcoin and other cryptos, with the false impression that would be their safe haven.
My question though is, does the market cap of the cryptocurrencies that are out there in some way amplify the amount of total worldwide currencies for which the value of gold and silver will be revalued some day? Or have those crypto dollars already been accounted for as liabilities by the creation of the world's fiat currencies? Hope that makes sense since it's hard to put into words...
And yesterday you said that (at least in theory) the final value of gold could be derived from the current Fed balance sheet total of about $7 trillion divided by the 235 million oz of gold which the Fed supposedly has, which would imply a $30k/oz gold price (which could go higher if the Fed continues to print).
So my second question is: Does it make sense to you that instead of the gold price being determined by the ratio of Fed's liabilities to Fed's ozs of gold held, could it rather be the WORLD's liabilities (as non-US countries also printed out of thin air) to world's total amount of ounces of gold? Or do you think that it still comes out to about the same number as perhaps each country has relatively little gold in reserve in comparison to its liabilities? Thanks in advance! :)
No it doesn't amplify the amount of currency out there. Only central banks do that. Bitcoin is a currency derivative. It can increase leverage, but not the currency supply.
Hey Rafi, now that I think about it, I realize it was a silly question since you can only buy cryptos with other currencies. Anyway, wish you the best and thanks for responding!
BRAVO BRAVO! Your best yet Rafi. Your Technical on the month Gold Relapse during elections I have had with my own work for a few weeks before the election but for lack of time and a bit of shyness I did not share. I fully agree therefore. I love it when someone confirms my own private analysis it is a real confidence builder. Actually Gold goes in a funk for 3-6 weeks every Presidential US election since about 2000 and then recovers and goes into what phase it already is in, either bull or bear. IMO, the whole gold market changed since the "Washington Agreement" late 1999 as up to that time (and in a limited fashion, that's what the Washington Agreement was about) for a few years after the CB's were holding the price of gold down by "renting" their gold out. Leasing gov't gold holdings. Selling Gold if necessary to control price. That Was A Big Thing during the 90's and Barrick was complicit with it, a big gold lender with the Bush influence on the board, which is why I will never buy Barrick. I hold grudges when it comes to stocks - some are just bad players.. Anyway things have changed in the last 20 years or so with Central Banks and the powers that be (Deep State etc) and Gold and your Brilliant analysis of Bitcoin and Tether etc. helps me Finally understand the place of Bitcoin in the scheme of things. Now it all makes some sense. THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR WORK!!!
OK, so USDT is the main onramp vehicle to buy BTC. And USDT is mostly backed by Treasuries as it is a stablecoin with a peg of 1 USD. And this certainly helps the US Treasury with funding itself, right now.
But aren't you missing that the BTC network is entirely separate from the fiat monetary system and has a fixed limit of units? And that USDT is not the exclusive onramp (or offramp) vehicle to buy/sell BTC?
Yes for now USDT is the highest volume pair but what if the SEPARATE USD monetary system begins to lose confidence and BTC holders won't sell for USDT anymore, at least not at the pegged $1 value? Already you can sell BTC for tokenized gold or silver, which are also separate from the fiat system and have fixed supplies.
Maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me that BTC may be immune to the debt-based system and that USDT (or any other fiat pair) can just be rejected for other types of funding/withdrawals when it loses it's value. Like tokenized PM's or tokenized real world assets - especially as all securities and commodities move to blockchain trading.
There’s no reference to USD or any other currency in the Bitcoin blockchain algorithm. Bitcoin could just as easily become a direct gold derivative as a dollar derivative.
I have to give you a double like here Rafi, your best post yet!
thanks
What bothers me is the degree of certainty these bitcoin experts have when talking about something that has never been tested.
It's not like there is a track record for them to point to, there is only speculation. And when we speculate over gold and silver, we are never 100% sure,,, but some how, they are absolutely positive when it comes to bitcoin.
I've made a 30% return on my investments with gold and silver since last year, to me that is GREAT!!!
One day, I believe every crypto wallet will just suddenly lock up,,, and the patch they release to open/fix it, will crumble the blockchain code, and the people they try to hold accountable, will have suddenly never existed.
I'm betting on gold and silver!
Rafi: "Tether is backed by US Treasurys and bitcoin enables the US to spread out its inflation on other unsuspecting rubes."
Rafi, I believe you previously said, and I believe you're saying above (and which I also believe to be true) that people who would otherwise have bought silver and gold in order to hedge against hyperinflation instead bought Bitcoin and other cryptos, with the false impression that would be their safe haven.
My question though is, does the market cap of the cryptocurrencies that are out there in some way amplify the amount of total worldwide currencies for which the value of gold and silver will be revalued some day? Or have those crypto dollars already been accounted for as liabilities by the creation of the world's fiat currencies? Hope that makes sense since it's hard to put into words...
And yesterday you said that (at least in theory) the final value of gold could be derived from the current Fed balance sheet total of about $7 trillion divided by the 235 million oz of gold which the Fed supposedly has, which would imply a $30k/oz gold price (which could go higher if the Fed continues to print).
So my second question is: Does it make sense to you that instead of the gold price being determined by the ratio of Fed's liabilities to Fed's ozs of gold held, could it rather be the WORLD's liabilities (as non-US countries also printed out of thin air) to world's total amount of ounces of gold? Or do you think that it still comes out to about the same number as perhaps each country has relatively little gold in reserve in comparison to its liabilities? Thanks in advance! :)
No it doesn't amplify the amount of currency out there. Only central banks do that. Bitcoin is a currency derivative. It can increase leverage, but not the currency supply.
Hey Rafi, now that I think about it, I realize it was a silly question since you can only buy cryptos with other currencies. Anyway, wish you the best and thanks for responding!
BRAVO BRAVO! Your best yet Rafi. Your Technical on the month Gold Relapse during elections I have had with my own work for a few weeks before the election but for lack of time and a bit of shyness I did not share. I fully agree therefore. I love it when someone confirms my own private analysis it is a real confidence builder. Actually Gold goes in a funk for 3-6 weeks every Presidential US election since about 2000 and then recovers and goes into what phase it already is in, either bull or bear. IMO, the whole gold market changed since the "Washington Agreement" late 1999 as up to that time (and in a limited fashion, that's what the Washington Agreement was about) for a few years after the CB's were holding the price of gold down by "renting" their gold out. Leasing gov't gold holdings. Selling Gold if necessary to control price. That Was A Big Thing during the 90's and Barrick was complicit with it, a big gold lender with the Bush influence on the board, which is why I will never buy Barrick. I hold grudges when it comes to stocks - some are just bad players.. Anyway things have changed in the last 20 years or so with Central Banks and the powers that be (Deep State etc) and Gold and your Brilliant analysis of Bitcoin and Tether etc. helps me Finally understand the place of Bitcoin in the scheme of things. Now it all makes some sense. THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR WORK!!!
Wow you’re on fire this time!!!
Another great piece, Rafi.
All bonds are War Bonds and all digcoin is Warcoin.
Very very good article Rafi!
Good becuause it inspires and nails the truth.
OK, so USDT is the main onramp vehicle to buy BTC. And USDT is mostly backed by Treasuries as it is a stablecoin with a peg of 1 USD. And this certainly helps the US Treasury with funding itself, right now.
But aren't you missing that the BTC network is entirely separate from the fiat monetary system and has a fixed limit of units? And that USDT is not the exclusive onramp (or offramp) vehicle to buy/sell BTC?
Yes for now USDT is the highest volume pair but what if the SEPARATE USD monetary system begins to lose confidence and BTC holders won't sell for USDT anymore, at least not at the pegged $1 value? Already you can sell BTC for tokenized gold or silver, which are also separate from the fiat system and have fixed supplies.
Maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me that BTC may be immune to the debt-based system and that USDT (or any other fiat pair) can just be rejected for other types of funding/withdrawals when it loses it's value. Like tokenized PM's or tokenized real world assets - especially as all securities and commodities move to blockchain trading.
There’s no reference to USD or any other currency in the Bitcoin blockchain algorithm. Bitcoin could just as easily become a direct gold derivative as a dollar derivative.
Amazing Bravo
Fascinating
They don't have enough, and I wonder how many owners those 48 tons have.