War Update, Fires All Around Me, And Kajiggering The Wall

It's smoky out there and it feel like Israel is about to invade Lebanon, bomb Beirut, or both. Meanwhile, the last repocalypse happened when repos soaked up 85% of available reserves. We are at 57%.

• Smoke all around me as explosions surround the city. I'm fine but this situation can't go on much longer and all out war is likely soon, God forbid.

• The last repocalypse was triggered when repos took up 85% of available bank reserves. We are now at 57% and climbing.

• Reports are the Saudis will accept other currencies for oil, which is significant but won't cause the dollar to fall, rather prepare the Saudis for its fall.

• Gold open interest has fallen over 100K contracts in 4 weeks but only $100 in price. I want to see us get down to 400K, which would be a firm bottom.

War Update

As I am writing this, there have been 2 rounds of sirens, and five explosions close to my house. Fires around the city are under control but the smoke is thick and this situation is not going to last much longer. Either they're going to stop, or Israel is going to invade Lebanon and the war will get real, and bad, and fast. In that event, it is possible I will be evacuated. If that happens, I will let you all know obviously, once I am down south. I don't know what the chances are.

I have a place to go, so no worries about that.

Is This The Wall?

I am trying to figure out how to triangulate the next repocalypse, which should precepitate the next, and I think final, financial crisis. It occurred to me to check how much of available reserves in the banking system are being used by the repo market and to see at what percentage the repocalypse of September 2019 was actually triggered. I successfully kajiggered this chart, which required rebalancing the units because one of them was in millions and the other in billion. Since I'm a genius because I know how to divide by 1000 and such, I was able to build this thingee: