Is War Imminent? (Spoiler: No, Iran is Too Weak and Freaked Out), Return to Reverse Repos

They'll put on another pathetic show of a few hundred missiles with advance warning that will all be intercepted and call it a day. Iranian leadership knows Israel can kill them all at will.

Israel's Enemies are Much Too Weak to Continue Fighting

It's been pretty tense here, and I have to admit kind of awesome. There is a celebratory atmosphere around the country since Hizballah #2 Fuad Shukur was taken out in Lebanon and good old Yishmael Hamas #1 was killed in Tehran. Treats are being handed out in the supermarkets and people are high fiving randomly in the streets and smiling at one another. Also, confirmed today is the death of Mohamed Deif, Hamas military chief, from July 13.

Excuse me for being blunt (or not, but I'll say what I believe anyway), what this proves is that our enemies are a bunch of trash-talking weak incompetent directionless nothings, an international laughing stock who can be taken out with pinpoint precision at will, if only we so desire it. God will help us if we decide to fight because we are His people and He didn't bring us back home to be slaughtered again, but we must decide to fight and be brave and confident about it.

Yes, sometimes (a lot of the time actually) Israel can be weak and directionless too – I do not deny this – but it's not inherent. It's only when we get lazy and cocky and forget God. It's the old Biblical story over and over again. We are not inherently useless, but our enemies are, and the only real strength they have is their hatred of us. Hence Hamas's slogan (literally, I am not making this up) is "We will never recognize Israel," because indeed this is why they exist. They exist only for us, to unite us, to make us stronger, to bring out the best in us, and to whack us in the face when we get stupid. So God bless Hamas, and the Houthis, and Hizballah and the Iran Revolutionary Whatevers, they're all doing their jobs perfectly.

I mean seriously. We killed Haniyeh with a missile through the window of his bedroom on the night of the inauguration of the new Iranian president replacing the old one who was killed in a helicopter crash. In order to do that, we would have to know where he is at all times, which means we know where all his friends are, too, and we can probably kill them all at will, if we so desire. Just like we killed everyone who murdered our Olympic team in Munich in 1972.  

There's a video on X circulating of the Iranian head of intelligence bragging about his greatest accomplishment being infiltration and dismantling of the Israeli Mossad. Uh huh, sure.

What happens now? My guess is that, Iranian leadership fearing for their lives now but needing to put on a show, they will put on another dumb show and shoot a few hundred missiles at us, with fair warning about exactly when and what kind and we'll be tracking them from the moment of launch, 99% of which will be knocked down again. Remember, the only casualty from the last barrage was a 7-year old Bedouin Arab girl who got a head injury from shrapnel. She was just released from the hospital this week actually, thank God.

And then things will calm down again, for how long I don't know.

Of course, if the Persians decide to actually fight and hurt us for real, or even if they kill people by accident, which is probably what happened in Majdal Shams with the 12 Druzi kids, we'll just kill their entire leadership top to bottom. And they know this, know we can do it, know we have men on the inside because their own people hate them, and there's nothing they can do about it. Not the way Israelis hate their leadership. That's just family bickering. I mean Iranians really hate their leadership and would be glad to see them all dead.

So no, we're not going to war yet. This is just another show.

Decisive Break In 10Y Yield