I Think It's October 1978

Strap on your platform shoes and get your disco balls ready. We have VIP tickets to Silver Studio $54.

• Seder night tonight (first night of Pesach) so I will be offline until around market close tomorrow. I see there are questions in the comments and I hope to get to them tomorrow.

• Looks like it's October 1978 in the silver market. Charts below. Tax Day collections were $100 billion less than the previous year, indicating a slowing economy.

• The semiconductor index, the most bubbly collection of bubble stocks, has fallen 18% in 6 weeks, suggesting signs of a potential crash incoming.

Jason Todd

Silver: October 1978?

If we are repeating the pattern of the 1970s, then we should be around here, at the old high which back then was $6.50. The equivalent today is $30.

Zooming out, we hit $6.50 three times in the 1970s. Once we hit it a third time, we took off into 1979 after a very brief dip.

Here's today's pattern:

These patterns don't always match up the way we would want them to, but if they do this time, and sometimes they do, then we have a little bit of a pullback for the next three months and then takeoff. It could be quicker than that, so don't assume it's going to work out exactly, but we have precedent for this.