Gold Correction Parallels '09-'11 Bull Market, and the Blue Team Tries to Trigger World War III

Basis trade in 2Y and 5Y Notes jacks up even higher, and repos to reserves ratio moves up 74% on repo volume spike.

• Bond market confirms a long-term bear trend, with 10Y yields rising despite Fed rate cuts, reminiscent of past bear markets.

• Gold's recent 9.3% correction aligns with historical patterns particularly during '09-'11.

• Record high short positions in 2Y and 5Y Treasuries indicate extreme market positioning, poised for significant impact when monetary systems falter.

• The blue team tries to start WWIII before they leave office.

Sorry I didn't put out a weekend report yesterday, but I have a good excuse. My power went out after the first winter storm in Israel. I quickly realized it wasn't the electric company. My breakers went down. I isolated the problem to an outlet in the attic and turned it off. Turns out it got wet and shorted. Apparently, my roof is leaking in about 10 places, but no shingles are broken. Then I realized all the leaks are on the side of the Hezbollah bomb that hit my street back in August and broke my car window, tire, and bedroom window. My roof shingles are all slightly displaced on that side now probably from the force of the explosion. Normally the two lips of each shingle hang over a slab of wood and lock into place but now they all shifted slightly down so I have to edge them all back up.

It's going to take me a day or two and sore fingers to finish the job but it's doable. Just call me Roofi for the next few days.

NOW Bomb Russia?!

The dickheads who run the Federal government, whoever they are, have done some pretty transparently awful things these past 20 years or so, but this is new for its spitting on the entire planet itself as well as everyone who lives on it, man, animal and plant. Having a dementia patient too old to run or even stand trial, whose protégé lost the elections in a landslide, authorize the bombing of Russian cities and the possible triggering of nuclear war, is a new low that digs below even the 7^th circle of hell, and I don’t even know what that means.

If this doesn't convince you that whoever is in charge is completely insane, and I don't use that in a colorful way I mean for real insane – then nothing possibly can. Hopefully there are enough sane people in the Deep State to stop this, and hopefully Zelensky understands that no, he cannot and should not bomb the cities of a nuclear-armed Putin. I know there are already headlines to the contrary. I hope it's just a show.

Strangely, I’m not that worried about this. (Maybe I should be.) It feels like the winds have already shifted and this is a desperate ploy to lash out in irrelevance. In fact, in a strange way I see it as a slightly encouraging. If the Deep State is willing to do something as blatantly nuts as this, then it's a sign they probably are losing, in a real measurable way. I think they may actually be cornered. We'll find out shortly.

Repo Volume Spike

Repo volume has spiked to $2.425 trillion, putting the repos to reserve ratio back up to 74%. The highest it's been was 78% on October 2 before backing off. I'm not sure what's causing the volume spike since there was no major tax day on November 15, though I have noticed that volume tends to spike around the middle of the month (14-18th) regardless of tax days, which also happen to be on the 15^th. The repocalypse of 2019 happened on the 17^th. This was the third highest repo volume day ever. Once reserves finally duck below $3 trillion, my feeling is that one of these spikes is going to lead to the clog, somewhere around the middle of the month.

Long Term Yields Only Rise on Rate Cuts During Bond Bear Markets