Consumer Price Inflation Expectations Goin' Wild! Spring Break!!!

Inflation expectations are spring breaking out all over the place, and record number of first notice gold contract deliveries on Friday.

This could be it. The beginning of the acceleration of consumer prices into oblivion. I'm talking late 1970s moves but with no possible backstop of high enough interest rates in the 20% range to stop it this time. Observe the following charts.

Core PCE Inflation Rate Still Higher than at any Pre Covid Time Since 1993

Sequential core PCE inflation rate is at 0.4%, hit only 6 times pre Covid since 1991, exceeded only in the month following 9/11.

Core PCE month over month is the Fed's preferred bullshit measure of "inflation".Consumer prices are re-accelerating and the next printing round is still yet to come. The next printing round I believe will be the final one. University of Michigan 1Y inflation expectations are right back up to the post Covid peak at 5%, and the highest of any pre Covid measure since 1982, excluding June 2008 just prior to the GFC. Again, suggesting the next financial implosion is just ahead now, almost certainly this year.

The 5Y UMich inflation expectations survey is even worse in terms of how fast it's accelerating. We're at 4.1%, worst since 1993, and it's hard to tell from this graph but I'm pretty sure it has never acclerated this fast this quickly month to month. Last month was 3.5%, already extremely high, and we're up 60 basis points in one month. That acceleration rate has never happened before, I'm pretty sure (though not 100%).

Sponsorship: Kootenay Silver (KOOYF) (KTN)

This EGI Substack is brought to you by Kootenay Silver (KOOYF) (KTN). I own shares. If you want to hear about the company from the mouth of the CEO James McDonald, my interview with him is here. I have turned away sponsorship offers before, and I only do them rarely when I think they are worthy, as long time EGI readers know.

Kootenay’s business model is to develop their 4 silver properties in Mexico to the point that they become attractive for acquisition. Right now Kootenay’s valuation is at about 30 cents per ounce in the ground, and McDonald believes he can get that up a dollar or higher through the development of the assets and of course a higher silver price.

About half the company’s share float is institutionally owned, including by Sprott and Condire, and a rough timeline to the development of its furthest-along resource to being ripe for acquisition is 4-18 months. If you’re comfortable with some speculation (not everyone is of course), then Kootenay is worth a look.

Record 55,878 Contracts Remain Open For April Gold Delivery

Gold warrant delivieries for April gold will almost certainly break records just set in February.