Basis Blowout Bombs Bonds, And Gold Open Interest Breaks Below 450K

Repo volume surges past $2.6 trillion and the SOFR rate gets dangerously wobblesome.

Gold Open Interest Breaks Below 450K

We're very close to a bottom in price, if not time. Open interest in gold futures is down to 446K contracts, below the December 2024 low of about 450K.

Here's a longer term look showing that these levels of open interest almost always coincide with a local low in the gold price. If you bought at any one of these periods since 2021, you'd be in good shape now. (You'd be in good shape no matter where you bought, but you'd be in better shape if you bought at these open interest levels. The black horizontal is where we are now.

Repos to Reserves Ratio Back up to 79%, SOFR Getting Very Unstable