Banks, Bessent Back August Treasury Bust

And Spot Gold Deliveries Soar On Price Drop

Purchases of May spot gold contracts for immediate delivery have increased significantly over the past two days.

You can see above that May 13 and 14 have seen more deliveries than any day since first notice. Somebody is using these dips to collect gold warrants.

In terms of trends, we are right at the daily cycle trend line now for the year, still have not broken it, unless you count the April dip, but barely.

On the weekly charts going back to 2024, we are still nowhere near the trend line.

We'd have to hit $2,900 to get there. Someone sent me a question about Gary Savage predicting a bottom in gold at $2,800. Knowing his style, he's probably saying something along the lines of we have to break the intermediate cycle trend line before we bottom, which for him would be at $2,900, and a break to $2,800 would confirm it.

He could be right, but I think open interest is way too low for us to get that low in price. OI is still at 441K and the selloff isn't pushing it any lower. That suggests to me that the futures market is no longer in charge of setting price. My guess is that the arbiter is the physical market now.

That doesn't mean to say the futures market is irrelevant to price of course. It can and will still have influence, and when speculators pour back in to the futures market, it will push price up. I'm just saying the primary factor right now appears to be the physical markets. Otherwise you'd have speculators dumping futures positions on this selloff and OI falling, which is not happening. The specs appear to be out already, and the ones that are left seem OK with a temporary dip for now. They're holding on.

Gold to Commodities Long Term

The chart below from GCRU shows the gold to CRB commodities index ratio since 1975.