$105 Trillion In Boomer Inheritances, And How I Know We Don't Have 10 Years Of Monetary Purgatory

It's been 16 years since the last true recession, and 19 months since unemployment bottomed without one. Record in both cases. We're close.

• It's been 19 months since unemployment bottomed in April 2023, and has ticked up since then. That's the longest without recession in modern history.

• If Covid was just an excuse to print trillions for the banks and prevent those trillions from escaping by locking us all down, then it's been 16 years since recession.

• Bitcoin, despite exposing monetary corruption, enriches the wrong people and behaves unpredictably, triple top still holding on weekly charts.

• The upcoming $105 trillion baby boomer wealth transfer will likely spur inflation as it moves through the economy.

How Do I Know It's Not 10 Years Away?

Phil Low of The Bitter Draught asked me my most hated question on a show we recorded yesterday. How do I know we don't have 10 more years of this crap? The question can be taken one of two ways. Either it means how do I know we don't have 10 more years of mini boom and bust cycles before the ultimate bust, AKA End Game? Alternatively, the question could be interpreted how do I know we won't be stuck in this quasi boomish Keynesian inflationary-drip pergatory for another 10 years without a single bust before the final End Game?

I am interpreting the question in the latter sense because to interpret it in the former sense is too simplistic. I know the next financial crisis will be the End Game trigger because each recession requires more money printing than the one before it, which means this next one will require somewhere between $6 and $10 trillion of fresh dollars to stuff the genie back in the lamp. The system cannot handle that, and so this next recession is the Big One.

Now, I have no definitive answer to the question of how I know we will not be stuck in a quasi boom purgatory for 10 years, but there is a preponderance of evidence that we are in the home stretch to the final recessionary trigger. One of those pieces of evidence is this chart: